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Looking ahead 2010: Economy
Economy tough to predict for 2010
Published Tuesday, December 29, 2009
It’s likely no one could have predicted the economic downturn that took place in 2009.
So, when it comes to looking ahead, it’s also not an easy task.
After a year where housing sales and sales tax revenues declined significantly, unemployment numbers soared and proration hit a historic-high for state school systems — a year unlike any other — 2010 has a tough act to follow.
While the nation as a whole suffered in a harsh economic climate, Pike County remained fairly steady in 2009.
With unemployment numbers high across the country, Pike County has still managed to keep its rates lower than national and state averages through most of the year.
Local economist Judson Edwards and President of the Pike County Economic Development Corporation Marsha Gaylard attribute that mainly to the diversity of local industry.
“I’ve always said one of the biggest advantages that we have is we have a very diverse industrial base,” Gaylard said. “We’re not totally dependent on any one industry sector.”
Those industries include Troy University, which Edwards said has contributed largely to the county’s steadiness.
“One of the influences we talk about all the time is the steadying influence of the university,” Edwards said.
But while Pike County has been blessed, in comparison, it certainly has not been completely immune to economic hardships.
City and county governments, local school systems and realtors can attest to that well.
Both governments and school systems, which depend on sales tax revenues largely for income, have had to tighten their belts after some of the highest drops in sales tax collections this year.
Overall, Troy, Brundidge and the Pike County Commission all finished the year in the black, but it wasn’t an easy task, especially for the commission, which already is working to pay back a debt that once was as high as $10 million.
School systems have had to deal with these same sales tax losses, on top of proration that was the highest Alabama’s seen in 48 years.
Luckily, both Pike County and Troy City Schools had reserve funds to draw from, keeping them in better shape than many through the state.
The county’s housing market has also managed to do better than the rest of the state, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s done well.
Glancing to 2010, Edwards said his biggest concern is inflation.
“I think that’s going to be a major issue for the coming year,” Edwards said. “I think for prices in general, we’re going to see an increase.”
Edwards said with the likelihood the government will be trying to secure a steady banking industry, prices may be on the rise.
“It’s the unpredictability of inflation that’s a concern,” Edwards said.
Higher prices, coupled with no cost of living increases, could be more bad news, he said.
“Another thing that’s happened, is we haven’t seen a high increase in salaries. Having the ability to give cost of living raises to keep up with inflation is going to be a tough situation for us,” Edwards said.
Edwards said another challenge will be building the jobs to climb out of unemployment.
“Where will these new jobs come from?” Edwards said.
With banking industries tightening, Edwards said it may be hard for new business developments to grow.
Still, the addition of CGI, Troy’s newest industry, should help locally with unemployment.
“We’re extremely fortunate to get CGI and have some of our local industries expand and add jobs in an economy like this,” Gaylard said. “That is a tremendous asset to our economy.”
Gaylard said she has no predictions for 2010’s economy, but she does continue to look to the future for growth.
“What we do is always look to the future. Our governmental leaders have looked to the future in the past, and instead of being dependent on one industry, we diversify,” Gaylard said. “We’re going to continue that.”
Gaylard said recently Troy’s Industrial Park was approved as a shovel-ready site, which could be used for recruitment in Troy.
Gaylard said retail recruitment is another plan of economic developers in 2010.
“Even in a bad economy like this, we’ve identified some other types of retail that are expanding and are still successful,” Gaylard said. “There are not a lot of retail-type businesses out there, but we’re going to be actively recruiting some more retail.”
Even with uncertainty of where all jobs will come from, Edwards said he believes unemployment will continue to decline in 2010.
“I think Pike County and university towns in general will be the first to move from these unemployment situations,” Edwards said. “I think 2010 will be a better year for us, but I’m worried more about the bigger-picture economy. Our losses are becoming smaller it seems.”
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Comments
Posted by DarrylDavis (anonymous) on December 29, 2009 at 6:15 a.m. (Suggest removal)
I am finished giggling for a minute so I will cut and paste this from the above article: " “I think Pike County and university towns in general will be the first to move from these unemployment situations,” Edwards said. “I think 2010 will be a better year for us, but I’m worried more about the bigger-picture economy. Our losses are becoming smaller it seems.” It appears that someone has been watching too much Communist News Network on television. Where is "Edwards" getting his prediction data? from Santa Claus? In less than 6 years time 1 ounce of gold has went from 300 dollars to over 1100 dollars so what does that say for the worth or value of the dollar? This article is propaganda to put the unread and ignorant back to sleep (sheeple) and watch Big Bird and Leave it to Beaver on television and do nothing. Remember on 911 when all the people came running out of thier offices to escape the tragedy, over the PA system they were told to go back to their offices and wait for further information (do nothing) . We all know what happened to those folks so who do we trust when government numbers so unrealistic as are published say that everything is ok and the worst is over? I say 2010 will be far worse than 2009 because there can be no jobless recovery and I am not going back to my office like all the other sheeple. People are going to believe what ever they want and most will attack a messenger of negativity but reality is still real and fanatasy is still make beleive.
Posted by prusso (anonymous) on December 29, 2009 at 7:43 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Alabama unemployment is improving, but conditions vary throughout the state according to this heat map:
http://www.localetrends.com/st/al-alabam...
Posted by Virtuous (anonymous) on December 29, 2009 at 9:07 a.m. (Suggest removal)
"Without those programs there will be rioting in the streets. Which of course people such as myself are looking forward to. It's time for a cleansing of the country and people forced to earn their own way in life rather than it being provided to them by fellow citizens thru taxation. Of course since this country has become a consumer / service society , it will be close to impossible for everyone to support themselves. At this time crime will run rampant and citizens will be forced to take the law into their own hands ."
I beg to differ barryseal55. People on these programs are not the ones you need to be worried about if any of what you've said is true. The people you are referring to, in my opinion, should be the LEAST of your worries. You speak about these people as poor/low-income people. From what I gather, it seems that you believe they have always been and always be classified this way. ...hmmm...
If the people you speak about have always been this way, who do you think will be the one to survive during a recession? They're living with doing WITHOUT! They're living with having to make a dollar out of .15 cents! They're living WITHOUT being homeowners. They're living WITHOUT all of the necessities and probably none of the luxuries that has obviously made you the man you are. Yet, they are still living...with less...but still living. So why in the world do you think THEY would be the ones rioting? Why would they when it's their everyday style of living.
It seems to make more sense that a greedy person is the one who would riot. Why? Because a greedy person NEVER has enough. A greedy person ALWAYS want more.
Now, YOU on the other had. I would be more suspicious of you since you have so much. Have you ever seen "Trading Places" starring Dan Akroid and Eddie Murphy? The movie portrays how a rich and successful man, who has everything, reacts when he loses everything. Why? Well, maybe it's because he doesn't know how to act when he had to live WITH LESS/WITHOUT!!!!!!!!!!!
Who do you see in these days killing themselves because they have lost everything? Who do you see killing themselves because they have devoted their lives in having "things" and then lose them? Who do you see losing their minds because they just can't seem to come down off of their high horses when times get rough so that they won't be considered as living below what they think they should if only for a brief moment? It sure as heck not the poor because like I said, they live and survive it everyday...it's NOTHING NEW TO THEM!!!!!!!!
Don't let the lead you're stocking up on put you in the grave you're digging for someone else.
Posted by bobby1jay (anonymous) on December 29, 2009 at 10:09 a.m. (Suggest removal)
barryseal55, I guess your glass is half empty !!!
Posted by Virtuous (anonymous) on December 29, 2009 at 10:26 a.m. (Suggest removal)
I said without ALL necessities and probably none of the luxuries. I was actually speaking of necessities.
I don't turn a deaf ear to sound advice, predictions or warnings. I'm open to the opinion of others. However, I feel that with the way you've been speaking on this site, your advice is only geared towards those in your social circle or class. For those who are less fortunate than you, you don't think they can get beyond or survive this without causing riots; giving you the opportunity of ridding the world of a certain group of people who you deem as inferior to you; therfore, making them worthless in your eyes.
Your statement could be very much true but if they had to depend on people such as yourself, who wouldn't give them the time of day or the opportunity to prove themselves on a job, then you are enabling them to do what you have predicted.
With all due respect, I'm just not comfortable with how you speak about people who are less fortunate than you.
Posted by Virtuous (anonymous) on December 29, 2009 at 11:44 a.m. (Suggest removal)
No, you didn't offend me. I actually understand the idea of what you're saying and its good for those who have knowledge of what's going on to explain it to those of us who don't quite have the same knowledge. You're just coming off harsh. Accepting your views as possibilities as to what's going on in this world is not the problem.
Just as I told another person in a previous post. I am one of those people who HAVE NOT, until recently, educated myself on this sort of things. Now that I have, I look for information on how to be prepared for my family. But you coming off the way you do does not make me want to listen or take heed to anything you have to say.
Thank you for clarifying that your intentions are not an attack on a particular group because the way you presented your arguement suggest just that.
Posted by Kelly (anonymous) on December 29, 2009 at 12:07 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Every week, I buy bottled water, dry goods, etc. My dad passed back in 2000. He was raised during the great depression, fought in WWII and long ago predicted the things that seal boy speaks of. Yes, it is true. Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.
Posted by turtle (anonymous) on December 29, 2009 at 12:13 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Dear Ms. Gaylord, if you read these comments please try to recruit something besides fast food eating places to the area. A few nice sit down eating establishments different from what we currently have (like maybe Olive Garden, Cracker Barrell, etc) would be nice. Oh and since we are a university town a good book store would be nice since the on campus bookstore does not live up to the hype it was given, most people still have to order from the internet, or go to Dothan to the Barnes and Noble or Montgomery to Books-A-Million for a good selection. A music store would also be great since Wal-Mart only carries censored, top 40 music, nothing outside the box. Troy could see growth but fast food joints and gas stations will continue to just make us a pit stop on the way to Panama City Beach, Dothan and Montgomery.
Posted by Virtuous (anonymous) on December 29, 2009 at 12:48 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Turtle...you said a MOUTHFUL!
Posted by turtle (anonymous) on December 29, 2009 at 3:44 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Is that good or bad LOL. I have long said if I am ever in the position to open my own business those would be the things I'd shoot for.
Posted by Virtuous (anonymous) on December 29, 2009 at 4:19 p.m. (Suggest removal)
I totally AGREE with you. I've said the exact same thing.
Posted by turtle (anonymous) on December 29, 2009 at 6:11 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Okay thanks! A burger for a quarter, hmmm it could actually probably be done and still make profit!
Posted by henrimasters (anonymous) on December 29, 2009 at 9:47 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Ya'll! Barry has two tractor trailer loads of those Y2K survival pills available for sale. Watch EBay and Craig's List for purchase and shippling instructions.
This country has been there before and will be there again. Murder in the streets has been the norm all the way. Our entire problem in this country is caused by social issues and not until we address those social issues will we stop repeating history. To fix the social issues everybody has to lose some skin and change their views.
Food for thought: You can't preach the virtues of diversity and then put restrictions on what that is. "The Movie, Chrystal - Billy Bob Thornton".
Posted by shiftingshadows (anonymous) on December 29, 2009 at 11:36 p.m. (Suggest removal)
looks like barry/darryl/fox likes to talk to himself.... hes the first 10 out of 11 comments... goodness...
Posted by shiftingshadows (anonymous) on December 29, 2009 at 11:45 p.m. (Suggest removal)
or the first 13 out of 16... great balls of fire...
Posted by DarrylDavis (anonymous) on December 30, 2009 at 8 a.m. (Suggest removal)
You are right barryseal55 and the same thing exist in democracy as the definition of democracy is two wolves and a lamb discussing what's for dinner. I personally am ready for what is to come . These other " nay sayers" if you will that put blind faith in someone and something that lies to them daily. Let them put their confidence in the State Troopers, the poly-ticians, the city council and the mayor or the governor. There are a few on this board who understand what the word free means but not many. I resent authority and always have as the ones that assume the role of authority are the ones that do not know their butt from a hole in the ground so therefore I have no confidence in these people. I would hope that folks would heed these words as 2010 is going to be miserable and will be for everyone when the money runs out and marshall law is put in place because of rioting and bad behaviour. For those that think this is silly .....go back to sleep Baaaa Baaaa Baaaaa start counting
Posted by Kelly (anonymous) on December 30, 2009 at 9:19 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Turtle, I agree 100%! I would love to see the downtown area (or "city center" as it is called in most places...) be developed as a destination for cafes and specialty shops.... loft apartments, etc... Our city center is a diamond in the rough, just waiting to be polished!
Posted by oldhog (anonymous) on December 30, 2009 at 9:28 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Turtle, I like the way you think... Barry, let me guess, Glen Beck's Common Sense, you read his booK?
Posted by oldhog (anonymous) on December 30, 2009 at 12:02 p.m. (Suggest removal)
You ever attended or heard of TEA Party?
Posted by oldhog (anonymous) on December 30, 2009 at 12:24 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Just curious! Sound a lot like a few friends of mine that are big Glen Beck fans, Talk a lot about the TEA party. Good that you read a lot of books by diffrent Authors, with diffrent points of view. That seems to keep everyone centered and thinking with your own mind instead of someone else's. "Polititians are like cockroaches that feed off the living and the dead,both can live a week with no head." Glen shouldn't be so hard on the cockroaches.
Posted by oldhog (anonymous) on December 30, 2009 at 1:39 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Your preaching to the preacher. Both parties have been so corrupt for so long that a well intended man entering the political field will either join them or be discredited and lose out. Money is the culprit when Congress has a 13% approval rating and nearly 90% of the polititians are re-elected. These career polititians outspend their challengers 8 to 1. They promise stuff they know we cannot pay for. They do keep playing the game, but we the people keep buying into it. (I keep voting for change, but its the same old game) Think I'll go have a beer and read some sports. Go Trojans!!! Ye Haw
Posted by Kelly (anonymous) on December 31, 2009 at 9:35 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Well, another year come and gone; here's to the best for all of you in the new year. Let's get back to turtle's ideas about a nice or at least quaint cafe in troy, maybe in the center. Also, what's with the mess cutting off the comments on some topics?
Posted by Virtuous (anonymous) on December 31, 2009 at 9:48 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Kelly,
Unfortunately, there are responders on the board who get a little out of hand with their comments. Instead of the messenger staff having to constantly remove messages, they will eventually just stop everyone from posting all together under that topic. Sad, huh?
Posted by Virtuous (anonymous) on December 31, 2009 at 11:47 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Giving an opinion is one thing; but just outright being purposely cruel is another.
Posted by shiftingshadows (anonymous) on December 31, 2009 at 3:17 p.m. (Suggest removal)
barryseal likes being cruel... he also uses his free time making other screen names and personalities to discuss on this forum.... its cruel having to see 5 of his screen names having a conversation with each other and not letting anyone else have an opinion without jumping all over them and being rude....
Posted by oldhog (anonymous) on December 31, 2009 at 7:24 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Thats right Barry everyone is entitled to their opinion. I personally don't hold it against anyone. Winning an argument on here is like winning the gold medal in the special olympics. Yes, you have a gold medal but your still retarted.
Posted by oldhog (anonymous) on December 31, 2009 at 7:29 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Kelley, thougth it was funny as heck when a student by the name of cheerleader13 started exposing the truth and some big wheel with ties to public education had them shut it down. Now that was funny, i don't care who you are. THAT WAS FUNNY.
Posted by oldhog (anonymous) on December 31, 2009 at 7:37 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Sorry I offended anyone with that fine organization. Your wonderful people and I promise my next donation will be to your outstanding orginization. Mess forgive me and there is no need to disable the comments. Good Night,
Posted by oldhog (anonymous) on December 31, 2009 at 7:48 p.m. (Suggest removal)
One more question, and I need a quick answere from someone. Is it beer and liquor you will never be sicker OR liquor and beer you will never be sicker????
Posted by OldSchoolPike3Worker (anonymous) on January 1, 2010 at 8:31 p.m. (Suggest removal)
I agree with a lot of the comments here. Just remember that it was politicians that got us into this mess and it will be politicians that get us out. Instead of reforming health care, they need to reform the U.S. federal government. Come on November 2010!!!!!!!!!!!
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